Where is the Economy heading? Will this be like 2008/2009? Better or Worse?

Thursday, July 23, 2020   /   by Derek Gutting

Where is the Economy heading? Will this be like 2008/2009? Better or Worse?

(MY MESSAGE TO MY REAL ESTATE TEAM)

GG,

It is a daily battle to stay educated in these uncertain times; however, it is our responsibility to stay informed so that we can continue to be the resource for our clients and help them make educated decisions.  The agent with the knowledge is who will succeed in this market and come out on top when it passes.  
Is a Perfect Storm brewing or not?  Will this recession / depression be worse than 2008?  Half say YES.. Half say NO.  

Lets take a look.
1) Moratorium on Evictions.  To help tenants, the CARES Act granted this temporary moratorium, but only lasts through July 24th.  20M to 28M people could be displaced from their homes btw July and September.    Some additional help is being offered at the State level.  Indiana has extended the moratorium until JULY 31st and has a COVID 19 RENTAL ASSISTANCE PROGRAM, where tenants can apply and if approved, they can receive $500/month for up to 4 months.  Apply online at www.indianahousingnow.org.
2) Moratorium on Foreclosures.  To help homeowners who have federally backed mortgages (which is appx 70% of all mortgages), the CARES Act granted temporary relief from banks foreclosing on their home.  This has been extended until August 31st.  Keep in mind, if someone has been financially impacted due to COVID 19, then they can request a forbearance or suspension of payments for up to 180 days, with some situations allowing for an additional 180 days.  Borrowers need to reach out to their loan servicer (whom they make their payment to).  
3) $600 unemployment pay.  CARES Act granted those that lost their jobs $600 a week.  This subsidy is scheduled to end July 31st.  Obviously this is much debate about extending, depending on which side of the aisle you are on.  This will affect 25M Americans if it goes away.
4) Moratorium on Student Loans.  Anyone with a federal student loan was able to suspend their payments until end of September under the CARES Act.  If no extension, they will be required to beginning making payments again as of October.  House Democrats have called for extending this until Sept 30, 2021 (one more year) and also includes 10k in federal student loan forgiveness and 10k in private student loan forgiveness.  We shall see.
5) PPP Money.  The government has given out over $500 BILLION to companies to help cover mostly payroll expenses through the Payroll Protection Program.  This was originally an 8 week loan (forgivable if follow rules), but has been extended to 24 weeks.  Companies that applied under the 8 week guidelines, can still use the money during that period, but can elect to also use it over the 24 week period if need be. 
MY SUMMARY.  A tremendous amount of support has been provided by our federal government, in which more assistance and support may be on its way.  That said, we still have tons of business closures and extremely high unemployment, while at its peak was around 15% in April we are now at 11.1%.  Keep in mind, during the great recession in 2008-2009, unemployment reached a high of 9.9%.  
Without any additional assistance, here is what is about to happen.  Companies that were relying on the PPP money to keep employees on payroll will now be letting those people go causing a rise in unemployment;  With the $600.00 a week assistance going away, 25M Americans will begin to struggle to pay their bills and to find gainful employment with unemployment as high as it is; with the moratoriums expiring, evictions and foreclosures by the millions will begin to happen, displacing Americans throughout the country.   Not a pretty forecast.

While some are saying we are on the other end of this battle and on the upswing, I find that to be difficult to rationalize.  It seems we are in for a very challenging ride over the next 12 to 18 months.  But with any challenge, comes opportunity.  
Gutting Group... Lets look at this as an opportunity!!  We will stay educated and be a part of the solution, not the problem.  We will persevere and all be better for it in the long run.  We will keep our clients educated and power through this storm together.  Grab their hand and don't let go.  They need us.. and we need them!  

Stay tuned.. this crisis changes daily!  
To the Top GG!!

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